Calgary Real Estate:
Crystal Ball Gazing for 2025

Buckle up, Calgary, because the real estate landscape is about to get interesting. Whether you’re a seasoned investor, looking to upgrade, a first-time buyer, or just curious about what the future holds, here’s a peek into the crystal ball, offering predictions, insights, and advice for navigating this evolving market.

The Big Picture: Balancing Act

Calgary’s real estate story in 2025 will be a delicate dance between a few key factors:

• Population Growth: Calgary is setting the pace for population growth among major Canadian cities. Looking ahead, Calgary’s population is projected to maintain its robust upward trajectory into 2024, with an anticipated growth rate of 4.9%. Furthermore, between 2025 and 2029, the city is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.5%, potentially reaching a population of 1,608,700 by 2029.

A significant driver of this growth is net migration, which is expected to account for approximately 75% of the total population increase over the next several years. This influx of new residents highlights Calgary’s appeal as a vibrant, thriving city with diverse opportunities for both individuals and families. The effect of this net migration will drive demand and lead to a sellers market.

• Economic Growth: Calgary’s economy is experiencing significant growth, driven by a robust energy sector and overall insdustry diversification . The city’s technology scene is flourishing, with an increasing number of startups and companies focusing on areas such as software development, digital media, biotech, and cleantech. This diversification is positioning Calgary as a dynamic hub for innovation and economic development.

According to the Conference Board of Canada, next year, Alberta’s net gross domestic product (GDP) will climb by 2.4 per cent and is projected to grow by 2.5 per cent in each of the following two years, before inching up slightly in 2028.

• Interest Rates: While the Bank of Canada’s key interest is pegged at 4.5%, the market is expecting further rate decreased that will positively impact affordability and buying power. Assuming borrowing costs decrease in 2024 and continue to remain lower than in 2023, it is expected that the average house price will appreciate by an average of 2.6% annually from 2024 to 2028.   (Source: Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2023-2028)
• Inventory Levels: Calgary’s housing market conditions are expected to loosen this year, but sellers will likely remain in control, according to the Calgary Real Estate Board’s (CREB) annual forecast. We’re likely to see continued low inventory levels in the luxury space, which means competition could remain high, especially for sought-after properties.
• Prices: As housing prices are anticipated to rise in the coming years, the Calgary housing market forecast for 2025 suggests a trajectory similar to this year’s growth expectations. By 2025, the average price for a Calgary home is projected to reach $810,000, indicating robust market conditions for both homebuyers and sellers.

(Source: Business in Calgary 2024)